A new poll shows U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff with a five-point lead in California’s race to succeed the late Dianne Feinstein in the U.S. Senate. While still relatively slim, it is Schiff’s largest lead to date.
The survey was conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California from Nov. 9 to 16 and involved 1,100 likely voters and has a 3.2% margin of error.
PPIC found that 21% of those surveyed would support Schiff in the primary race while 16% would vote for Rep. Katie Porter. Republican and former Major League Baseball slugger Steve Garvey had 10% support, and Democrat Rep. Barbara Lee polled at 8%.
As with other prior California Senate surveys, PPIC found a large percentage of voters are still undecided.
A November Inside California Politics/Emerson College poll showed several other candidates, James P. Bradley, Lexi Reese, Eric Early, Christina Pascucci, Jonathan Reiss and Sarah Liew with support in the low single digits. That same poll found Schiff with a three-point lead over Porter, while a June survey showed Schiff and Porter in a virtual tie.
CalMatters political analyst Dan Walters says this will be the first competitive U.S. Senate race in California this century.
“Two women, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer, captured the two seats 31 years ago and held them for decades,” Walters recently noted. “Republicans haven’t mounted a serious Senate drive for a quarter-century, and the state’s current senators, Democrats Alex Padilla and Laphonza Butler, were appointed by Gov. Gavin Newsom.”
Walters believes Schiff and Porter are most likely to finish as the top two candidates in the March primary and advance to the November runoff.
“Had Butler mounted a campaign run and divided the Democratic vote even more, it might have given Garvey or some other Republican an outside chance of making the runoff,” said Walters.
